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The Pros and Cons of Anti-Vaccination

Sat, 24 Jan 2026 15:41:23 +0900

The Pros and Cons of Anti-Vaccination - The Futures of 5,000 People Killed by “Good-Intentioned Anxiety” and the Epidemiological Lessons We Must Learn

The “Illusion of Causality” Highlighted by the COVID-19 Pandemic

Since 2021, the vaccination against the novel coronavirus has progressed rapidly in Japan. It was a public health project rare in human history, with nearly 80% of the public getting vaccinated in a short period. During this process, we witnessed countless “screams” through social media and the media. “My family member passed away a few days after getting the vaccine,” “I’ve been experiencing unexplained poor health since the vaccination” — these complaints are earnest, and for those involved, their suffering is an undeniable truth.

However, here exists a cold but extremely important “trap” in epidemiology. Considering the population size of Japan, whether people get vaccinated or not, about 3,000 to 4,000 people die every day from various causes (illness, accidents, old age). If the vast majority of the public gets vaccinated all at once, probabilistically, a certain number of people will inevitably “die the day after vaccination (from causes unrelated to the vaccine).” In technical terms, this is called “Coincidence”.

Humans are equipped with a cognitive bias called the “Post hoc ergo propter hoc” (after this, therefore because of this) fallacy. If “B (death) occurs after A (vaccination),” we intuitively connect that “A is the cause of B.” During the COVID-19 pandemic, this cognitive bias was amplified and spread by the social media amplifier, creating a demographic that established the image of “vaccine = dangerous” without waiting for scientific verification.

Many public health experts watched this spectacle with a sense of déjà vu. This is because Japan is the only developed country that, just a few years ago, voluntarily relinquished the means to prevent a preventable disease due to this “anxiety without science.” That is the issue of the “Cervical Cancer Vaccine (HPV Vaccine)”.

What Happened in Japan in 2013?

Let’s turn the clock back a little. Cervical cancer is a disease that affects about 11,000 women and kills about 2,900 people a year. It is also called the “Mother Killer” because it strikes women in their 20s to 40s, the prime time for child-rearing and work. The cause is infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV), a common virus that 80% of women who have had sexual intercourse will be infected with at least once in their lives. The HPV vaccine, which prevents this viral infection, was introduced worldwide as an “epoch-making vaccine that can prevent cancer,” and in Japan, it became a routine vaccination (strongly recommended by the state and available free of charge) in April 2013.

However, the situation immediately took a dark turn. Symptoms such as general body pain, movement disorders, and memory impairment were reported by some of the vaccinated girls, and the media widely reported this daily as “suspected adverse reactions to the vaccine.” Images of girls having convulsions had a strong impact on viewers, and public opinion quickly tilted toward the “vaccine danger theory.”

In response, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare decided in June 2013, just two months after the start of routine vaccinations, to “withhold proactive recommendation.” This was neither a “prohibition” nor a “cancellation,” but a highly ambiguous political decision to “keep the framework of routine vaccination but stop sending individual notification letters from the government.” However, this was conveyed to the public as a message that “the government admitted it was dangerous and stopped it.” As a result, the vaccination rate, which had exceeded 70%, plummeted to less than 1% in an instant.

This marks the beginning of the “Lost 8 Years (Vaccine Gap)” in Japan.

The “Truth” Exposed by the Nagoya Study

Were the symptoms reported by the media really caused by the vaccine? There is a large-scale study that attempted to answer this question scientifically. It is commonly known as the “Nagoya Study”.

In 2015, the city of Nagoya conducted a large-scale questionnaire survey of about 70,000 young women. This included both those who had “received the vaccine” and those who “had not,” and asked them about the presence or absence of 24 symptoms, such as “irregular menstruation,” “joint pain,” and “decreased concentration.” If the vaccine were the cause, these symptoms should have clearly appeared more in the “vaccinated” group.

The results were shocking. There was no significant difference in the incidence of symptoms between the “vaccinated group” and the “unvaccinated group.”

What does this mean? Adolescent girls are at a time when they are prone to physical ailments such as orthostatic dysregulation and chronic pain due to hormonal balance changes and circumstances unique to their growth period, regardless of whether they have been vaccinated or not. In other words, there were “girls who had not been vaccinated but had the same symptoms” at the same rate as the “girls who developed symptoms after getting the vaccine” reported by the media. However, the poor health of the unvaccinated girls was treated as “adolescent ailments,” while only the poor health of the vaccinated girls was highlighted as “vaccine damage.” The data showed that it is highly likely that this is the true identity of the phenomenon that caused a fuss as a “drug-induced disaster.”

Furthermore, the involvement of the “Nocebo effect” has also been pointed out. The opposite of the “Placebo effect,” it is a phenomenon in which pain and poor health actually occur due to anxiety and fear when ingested with the belief that “this is bad for the body.” It cannot be denied that the daily negative reports may have affected the delicate minds and bodies of the girls.

The “Sin of Omission” Seen in Numbers

“Stopping recommendation just in case.” At first glance, this decision seems like a “cautious and safe choice.” After all, it’s too late once something happens, so when in doubt, stop. However, in public health, “doing nothing (omission)” sometimes causes damage that far exceeds the risk of “doing something.”

A research team at Osaka University published a cruel estimate regarding the impact of this withheld recommendation. They predict that the sharp drop in vaccination rates between 2013 and 2019 will result in an increase of approximately 25,000 future cases of cervical cancer that could have been prevented, and an increase in deaths of approximately 5,000 to 5,700.

Over 5,000 deaths. This is a number comparable to a large-scale natural disaster. As a result of trying to avoid a risk whose causal relationship was scientifically uncertain, “anxiety about adverse reactions,” we burdened the women of the future with a certain and grave risk: “death from cancer.”

If we look around the world, the difference is obvious. In Australia, due to the spread of vaccination among men and women, cervical cancer is predicted to be “eradicated (become a rare cancer)” by around 2028. In the UK, there are reports that the incidence of cervical cancer in the vaccinated generation has dropped to almost zero. While the world moves towards a future that “overcomes cancer,” Japan alone has been left behind in a past where “cancer continues to increase.” In 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety singled out the situation in Japan for criticism, stating that “policy decisions not based on scientific evidence are causing real harm (death from cancer).”

The Chaining of “Vaccine Hesitancy” Across the Ocean

The tragedy of the HPV vaccine that occurred in Japan is by no means a “special circumstance unique to Japan.” Even now, there are reports from around the world showing that when “intuitive anxiety” and “ideology” are prioritized over science, infectious diseases will bare their fangs anytime, anywhere.

A prominent example of this is the outbreak of “measles” in the United States.

Measles is a highly contagious virus, but it is a disease that can be almost completely prevented by vaccination. In the United States, it was once declared “eliminated” in 2000 through a thorough vaccination program. In other words, the endemic virus was considered to be gone from the country. However, in recent years, measles has begun to spread again.

According to a BBC report (2024), US health authorities point out that the deeply rooted “Vaccine Hesitancy” in some communities is a hotbed for the spread of the infection. Vaccination rates are declining in areas where some groups claim to be “naturalists” for religious reasons, or where anti-vaccine ideology based on misinformation has permeated. When the virus is brought in from overseas, it causes explosive infections among those without immunity.

Measles is not just a disease that ends with a fever and rash. It causes serious complications such as pneumonia and encephalitis, and can be fatal even in developed countries. A disease that humanity once pooled its wisdom to “contain” is exploiting the vulnerability of people’s “doubts” to threaten the lives of children once again. The case of the United States warns us: “The breakwater of a high vaccination rate collapses in an instant if people’s trust is shaken.”

The Defeat of Media, Experts, and Ourselves

Why do these situations keep repeating? Behind it lies the information asymmetry peculiar to modern society and our cognitive biases.

In the HPV vaccine issue in Japan, the media sensationalized “suspected adverse reactions to the vaccine.” The composition of “pitiful victims” versus “coldhearted government/pharmaceutical companies” was very powerful as a narrative and strongly shook the emotions of viewers. On the other hand, the scientific explanations of experts, such as “there is no statistically significant difference” or “the benefits outweigh the risks,” sounded dry and cold, and were completely powerless in the face of the torrent of emotions.

In the world of science, if there is an established theory supported by 99% of scientists and a dissenting opinion from 1%, they are not treated as “equivalent opinions.” However, the media, perhaps placing too much emphasis on “fairness” or seeking to attract attention, reported the data that would save tens of thousands of lives and the emotional appeal of a single victim’s damage as “equals” side-by-side. Politicians, too, fearing public backlash, prioritized reading the “mood of the room” over scientific evidence. As a result, proactive recommendation of the HPV vaccine was suspended in Japan for about nine years, producing many cancer victims who could have been prevented during that time.

History Repeats Itself - The Intelligence to Resist the “Atmosphere”

In 2022, proactive recommendation of the HPV vaccine was finally resumed in Japan. However, the lost time and lives cannot be returned. And now, just as measles is rebounding in the United States, history will repeat itself over and over if we let our guard down.

It is impossible to completely deny the anti-vaccine movement or having concerns about medical care. Being cautious about what you put into your body is a human defense instinct, and drug-induced disasters have actually occurred in the past. Monitoring and doubting power is important in a democracy.

However, what the series of events—the COVID-19 vaccine, the HPV vaccine, and the measles outbreak in the US—confronts us with is the grim fact that “well-intentioned anxiety that ignores science” can claim more lives than the virus itself.

“It might be dangerous, so let’s wait and see.” When we make that decision, have we factored in the “probability of dying from the disease while waiting and seeing”? “Natural things are best.” When we say that, haven’t we forgotten the history that “it is the viruses found in nature that have taken lives most mercilessly”?

New infectious diseases will continue to appear, and new vaccines will be developed. When that happens, will we again be confused by the phenomenon of “coincidence” and swayed by emotional instigation? Or will we be able to calmly decipher the data and weigh the risks against the benefits?

It is said that history repeats itself. However, the only thing that can stop it is our reason. We must look at statistically correct data and possess the intelligence to choose “facts” over the “atmosphere.” That is our responsibility living in the modern age.

References / Data Sources

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare: “Human Papillomavirus Infection ~ Cervical Cancer and the HPV Vaccine ~”
National Cancer Center: Cancer Information Service “Cervical Cancer” Statistical Data
BBC News (Japanese): “US CDC Calls for Vaccination Amid Measles Outbreak; Global Infections on the Rise” (2024) and related original articles
Osaka University Research Team (Yagi A, et al. Lancet Public Health. 2020): Research on estimating excess morbidity and mortality due to the suspension of proactive recommendation for routine HPV vaccination
Nagoya Study (Suzuki S, et al. Papillomavirus Res. 2018)

The Illusion and Reality of "Japanese First": The Defense Mechanism Called "Coexistence" Facing Japan in 2026

Fri, 23 Jan 2026 13:43:41 +0900

The Illusion and Reality of “Japanese First”: The Defense Mechanism Called “Coexistence” Facing Japan in 2026

Introduction: Why Does This Phrase Resonate Now?

We now stand at an unprecedented turning point of an era. Prolonged inflation, sluggish real wage growth, and visibly advancing declining birthrates and aging population. Every time the price tags of products on supermarket shelves are rewritten, anxiety about the future casts a shadow over our hearts.

In the midst of this sense of stagnation, a phrase is rapidly gaining support. It is “Japanese First” (Nihonjin First).

The desire to “first enrich the lives of our own citizens” and “protect Japanese culture and public safety as a top priority” is an extremely natural and compelling urge as a sovereign individual, and as a human being living in this country. However, between the “ideal” championed by this phrase and the “reality” shown by statistical data, there exists a large gap that we must face squarely.

In this article, putting aside emotional arguments and labeling, we will close in on the true nature of this issue based on objective data, historical transitions, and facts occurring in various parts of society.

This phrase did not suddenly appear. It has been cultivated through a complex interplay of global trends and circumstances unique to Japan.

1. 2016-2017: Import and Establishment of the Phrase

In 2016, Donald Trump’s “America First” sent shockwaves around the world. Domestically in 2017, the “Tomin First no Kai” (Tokyoites First) led by Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike attracted attention. At this point, it was largely a rhetorical device to clarify policy priorities, and exclusionary nuances were still limited.

2. 2023-2024: Visualization of Anxiety

The delayed economic recovery after the pandemic and inflation accompanying the rapid depreciation of the yen hit ordinary households directly. Around the same time, dissatisfaction based on fragmented information, such as “Support for foreigners is too generous” and “Japanese taxpayers’ money is flowing to foreigners,” began to erupt on social media.

In the 2025 national elections, forces officially using “Japanese First” as a slogan secured a certain number of seats. Social media algorithms, reacting to people’s anxieties, preferentially displayed extreme posts, accelerating the “echo chamber phenomenon” where only specific values are reinforced.

The latest public opinion poll conducted by various newspaper companies (late 2025) highlighted the reality that public opinion is split right down the middle regarding this slogan: 42% “Agree / somewhat agree” and 38% “Disagree / somewhat disagree”.

One of the pillars of the logic supporting “Japanese First” is the image that “Japanese resources are being usurped by foreigners.” However, primary data from government agencies shows a reality exactly opposite to this intuition.

1. Labor Force: The “Indispensable Blood” Maintaining the Japanese Economy

According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare’s “Foreigner Employment Situation (as of the end of October 2024)”, the number of foreign workers was **2,048,675 . Current estimates in 2026 show it has already surpassed ** 2.3 million.

Industrial Sector	Ratio/Increase Rate of Foreign Workers	Reality and Role
Construction	Approx. 22.7% increase YoY	Indispensable for infrastructure maintenance and repair of aging bridges and roads.
Medical/Welfare	Approx. 28.1% increase YoY	Serving on the front lines of caregiving, supporting elderly Japanese.
Manufacturing	Accounts for approx. 26% of the total	The backbone supporting the front lines of Japan’s export industry.

Currently, they are filling the “void that Japanese can no longer secure,” rather than jobs that Japanese people want to do but cannot. If we exclude them in the name of “Japanese First,” our caregiving system would immediately collapse, and housing and food prices would jump further from several tens of percent to multiple times.

The most widely spread narrative on social media is that “foreigners are receiving public assistance preferentially.” However, looking at the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare’s statistics, the proportion of households with foreign heads among all recipient households is about 2.8-2.9%. Over the past 10-plus years, this figure has remained almost flat.

Conversely, looking at the age composition of foreign residents, the majority are in the working generations in their 20s to 40s. They pay welfare pensions and health insurance premiums, playing the role of “providers” who support the pensions and medical expenses received by “elderly Japanese.” It is none other than them who are prolonging the life of Japan’s social security system by filling the void in the working generation left after the Japanese have departed.

Anxiety about public safety most strongly stimulates the emotions of “Japanese First.” However, a detailed reading of the National Police Agency’s statistics and the Ministry of Justice’s “White Paper on Crime” reveals how much the image of the “vicious foreigner” on the internet is created by cognitive distortion.

1. A Calm Comparison of “Total Numbers” and “Crime Rates”

According to statistics published in 2024, foreigners account for about 5.5% of all arrested persons. The remaining roughly 95% are crimes committed by Japanese.

Comparing the number of arrested persons per 100,000 population (crime rate) reveals the essence even further.

Category	Arrested Persons per 100,000 Population (Estimate)
Japanese (All Ages)	Approx. 142.7 people
Foreign Residents (Settled/Residents)	Approx. 120.0 people

It is a statistical fact that the crime rate of foreigners residing in Japan in the medium to long term is lower than the overall average for Japanese.

2. The Magic of Bias Due to “Generation”

Why does the image that “foreigners are scary” take precedence? The biggest factor is the difference in “age composition” in criminology.

Japanese: About 30% are elderly people with extremely low crime rates. Because this demographic pushes down the “denominator,” the overall figure for Japan appears low.
Foreigners: Because they come to Japan as a labor force, over 80% are in the “young to middle-aged group,” where crimes are statistically more likely to occur.

If we compare the crime rates of Japanese and foreigners under the same condition of “those in their 20s,” no significant difference is seen between the two. In other words, it is not that “public safety has deteriorated because the number of foreigners has increased,” but merely that “the age group prone to committing crimes (the youth) exists in Japan in the form of foreigners.”

Social media algorithms use our “anxiety” as fuel. When one foreign crime occurs, it is intensely spread in association with the “attribute (nationality).” Then, only the memory that “a foreigner caused an incident again” is reinforced in our brains.

This is called “confirmation bias.” Crimes by Japanese, which account for 95% of the total, are overlooked as “everyday life,” and the 5% of foreign crimes are swapped for the image of “all foreigners.”

Chapter 4: Inheritance of Culture — “Destroyers” or “Saviors”?

The concern that “Japanese traditions and culture will be destroyed” also differs from the reality on the ground.

1. The “Last Inheritors” of Traditional Crafts

The number of workers manufacturing Japanese traditional crafts has plummeted from about 300,000 in the 1970s to about 50,000 today. Those saving this crisis of extinction are foreigners who came to Japan with deep respect for Japanese culture.

Sake Breweries and Sword Smiths: Foreigners have become apprentices in workshops where Japanese people have almost given up on inheritance. By incorporating an ability to broadcast overseas and new sensibilities, they are revitalizing cultures on the verge of closure into “sustainable industries.”

2. Maintenance of Local Communities

In local municipalities that have become “cities at risk of disappearance” due to the disappearance of young people, technical interns and specified skilled foreign workers have become the bearers of local festivals and support the foundation of agriculture. Who is tilling the abandoned farmland left behind by departing Japanese and protecting events that have continued for hundreds of years? If we look at that reality, we understand that they are not the “destroyers” of culture, but the “last line of defense.”

Chapter 5: Concerns in the Educational Field and the Chain of “Bullying”

The side effects of bringing the phrase “Japanese First” into the educational field are serious.

The Binary Opposition Dividing “Inside and Outside”: If children internalize the mistaken elitism that “Japanese are a privileged class that should be prioritized,” it easily leads to bullying that excludes “those who are different from us.”
Ranking by Roots: Children who have Japanese nationality but look different or have different names are attacked as “not Japanese.” This is the collapse of education and an act of harming the very human resources who will carry the future of Japan.

Experts in the field of education fear the risk that the exclusivity carried by the word “First” will diminish children’s ability for multicultural coexistence, resulting in Japan isolating itself from the world.

Chapter 6: Global Trends and the Wave of Populism

This phenomenon is not unique to Japan. Even in Western countries, a phenomenon continues where demographics who could not receive the benefits of globalization drift towards populism championing “My Country First.”

However, where Japan differs decisively from the West is that “its population is decreasing at the fastest speed in the world.” While other countries may have the option of “restriction,” in Japan there already exist countless social infrastructures that cannot be maintained without “cooperation.” Continuing to adhere to an emotional “First” means a logical “slow suicide.”

In Conclusion: What is True “Japanese First”?

The desire embedded in the phrase “Japanese First” — the desire to “put the lives of the citizens first” — is in itself the most basic responsibility that a country’s government should have.

However, the means to fulfill that desire must not be the “exclusion of our neighbors.” Because, as objective data shows, the convenience of life, public safety, traditional culture, and the social security system itself that we currently enjoy are already in a phase of “dependence and coexistence” that cannot be established without the presence of foreigners.

Is not the true “Japanese First” to calmly put the following three points into practice?

Discussions Based on Facts: Do not be swayed by rumors or exaggerated information, but grasp reality based on primary statistics from government agencies.
Establishment of Fair Rules: Require foreigners to comply with Japanese rules, while Japanese society treats them as fair partners.
Internal Update: Do not view the acceptance of foreigners as “losing Japan,” but a paradigm shift recognizing that it is to “rebuild and maintain Japan” with their help.

In 2026, we stand at a major crossroads. Will we continue to shout words of division and strangle ourselves? Or will we face reality and take a step towards a “sustainable Japan” where diverse people support each other?

The answer lies within the “intelligence” and “courage” in the heart of each individual.