The Pros and Cons of Anti-Vaccination

Sat, 24 Jan 2026 15:41:23 +0900

The Pros and Cons of Anti-Vaccination - The Futures of 5,000 People Killed by “Good-Intentioned Anxiety” and the Epidemiological Lessons We Must Learn

The “Illusion of Causality” Highlighted by the COVID-19 Pandemic

Since 2021, the vaccination against the novel coronavirus has progressed rapidly in Japan. It was a public health project rare in human history, with nearly 80% of the public getting vaccinated in a short period. During this process, we witnessed countless “screams” through social media and the media. “My family member passed away a few days after getting the vaccine,” “I’ve been experiencing unexplained poor health since the vaccination” — these complaints are earnest, and for those involved, their suffering is an undeniable truth.

However, here exists a cold but extremely important “trap” in epidemiology. Considering the population size of Japan, whether people get vaccinated or not, about 3,000 to 4,000 people die every day from various causes (illness, accidents, old age). If the vast majority of the public gets vaccinated all at once, probabilistically, a certain number of people will inevitably “die the day after vaccination (from causes unrelated to the vaccine).” In technical terms, this is called “Coincidence”.

Humans are equipped with a cognitive bias called the “Post hoc ergo propter hoc” (after this, therefore because of this) fallacy. If “B (death) occurs after A (vaccination),” we intuitively connect that “A is the cause of B.” During the COVID-19 pandemic, this cognitive bias was amplified and spread by the social media amplifier, creating a demographic that established the image of “vaccine = dangerous” without waiting for scientific verification.

Many public health experts watched this spectacle with a sense of déjà vu. This is because Japan is the only developed country that, just a few years ago, voluntarily relinquished the means to prevent a preventable disease due to this “anxiety without science.” That is the issue of the “Cervical Cancer Vaccine (HPV Vaccine)”.

What Happened in Japan in 2013?

Let’s turn the clock back a little. Cervical cancer is a disease that affects about 11,000 women and kills about 2,900 people a year. It is also called the “Mother Killer” because it strikes women in their 20s to 40s, the prime time for child-rearing and work. The cause is infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV), a common virus that 80% of women who have had sexual intercourse will be infected with at least once in their lives. The HPV vaccine, which prevents this viral infection, was introduced worldwide as an “epoch-making vaccine that can prevent cancer,” and in Japan, it became a routine vaccination (strongly recommended by the state and available free of charge) in April 2013.

However, the situation immediately took a dark turn. Symptoms such as general body pain, movement disorders, and memory impairment were reported by some of the vaccinated girls, and the media widely reported this daily as “suspected adverse reactions to the vaccine.” Images of girls having convulsions had a strong impact on viewers, and public opinion quickly tilted toward the “vaccine danger theory.”

In response, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare decided in June 2013, just two months after the start of routine vaccinations, to “withhold proactive recommendation.” This was neither a “prohibition” nor a “cancellation,” but a highly ambiguous political decision to “keep the framework of routine vaccination but stop sending individual notification letters from the government.” However, this was conveyed to the public as a message that “the government admitted it was dangerous and stopped it.” As a result, the vaccination rate, which had exceeded 70%, plummeted to less than 1% in an instant.

This marks the beginning of the “Lost 8 Years (Vaccine Gap)” in Japan.

The “Truth” Exposed by the Nagoya Study

Were the symptoms reported by the media really caused by the vaccine? There is a large-scale study that attempted to answer this question scientifically. It is commonly known as the “Nagoya Study”.

In 2015, the city of Nagoya conducted a large-scale questionnaire survey of about 70,000 young women. This included both those who had “received the vaccine” and those who “had not,” and asked them about the presence or absence of 24 symptoms, such as “irregular menstruation,” “joint pain,” and “decreased concentration.” If the vaccine were the cause, these symptoms should have clearly appeared more in the “vaccinated” group.

The results were shocking. There was no significant difference in the incidence of symptoms between the “vaccinated group” and the “unvaccinated group.”

What does this mean? Adolescent girls are at a time when they are prone to physical ailments such as orthostatic dysregulation and chronic pain due to hormonal balance changes and circumstances unique to their growth period, regardless of whether they have been vaccinated or not. In other words, there were “girls who had not been vaccinated but had the same symptoms” at the same rate as the “girls who developed symptoms after getting the vaccine” reported by the media. However, the poor health of the unvaccinated girls was treated as “adolescent ailments,” while only the poor health of the vaccinated girls was highlighted as “vaccine damage.” The data showed that it is highly likely that this is the true identity of the phenomenon that caused a fuss as a “drug-induced disaster.”

Furthermore, the involvement of the “Nocebo effect” has also been pointed out. The opposite of the “Placebo effect,” it is a phenomenon in which pain and poor health actually occur due to anxiety and fear when ingested with the belief that “this is bad for the body.” It cannot be denied that the daily negative reports may have affected the delicate minds and bodies of the girls.

The “Sin of Omission” Seen in Numbers

“Stopping recommendation just in case.” At first glance, this decision seems like a “cautious and safe choice.” After all, it’s too late once something happens, so when in doubt, stop. However, in public health, “doing nothing (omission)” sometimes causes damage that far exceeds the risk of “doing something.”

A research team at Osaka University published a cruel estimate regarding the impact of this withheld recommendation. They predict that the sharp drop in vaccination rates between 2013 and 2019 will result in an increase of approximately 25,000 future cases of cervical cancer that could have been prevented, and an increase in deaths of approximately 5,000 to 5,700.

Over 5,000 deaths. This is a number comparable to a large-scale natural disaster. As a result of trying to avoid a risk whose causal relationship was scientifically uncertain, “anxiety about adverse reactions,” we burdened the women of the future with a certain and grave risk: “death from cancer.”

If we look around the world, the difference is obvious. In Australia, due to the spread of vaccination among men and women, cervical cancer is predicted to be “eradicated (become a rare cancer)” by around 2028. In the UK, there are reports that the incidence of cervical cancer in the vaccinated generation has dropped to almost zero. While the world moves towards a future that “overcomes cancer,” Japan alone has been left behind in a past where “cancer continues to increase.” In 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety singled out the situation in Japan for criticism, stating that “policy decisions not based on scientific evidence are causing real harm (death from cancer).”

The Chaining of “Vaccine Hesitancy” Across the Ocean

The tragedy of the HPV vaccine that occurred in Japan is by no means a “special circumstance unique to Japan.” Even now, there are reports from around the world showing that when “intuitive anxiety” and “ideology” are prioritized over science, infectious diseases will bare their fangs anytime, anywhere.

A prominent example of this is the outbreak of “measles” in the United States.

Measles is a highly contagious virus, but it is a disease that can be almost completely prevented by vaccination. In the United States, it was once declared “eliminated” in 2000 through a thorough vaccination program. In other words, the endemic virus was considered to be gone from the country. However, in recent years, measles has begun to spread again.

According to a BBC report (2024), US health authorities point out that the deeply rooted “Vaccine Hesitancy” in some communities is a hotbed for the spread of the infection. Vaccination rates are declining in areas where some groups claim to be “naturalists” for religious reasons, or where anti-vaccine ideology based on misinformation has permeated. When the virus is brought in from overseas, it causes explosive infections among those without immunity.

Measles is not just a disease that ends with a fever and rash. It causes serious complications such as pneumonia and encephalitis, and can be fatal even in developed countries. A disease that humanity once pooled its wisdom to “contain” is exploiting the vulnerability of people’s “doubts” to threaten the lives of children once again. The case of the United States warns us: “The breakwater of a high vaccination rate collapses in an instant if people’s trust is shaken.”

The Defeat of Media, Experts, and Ourselves

Why do these situations keep repeating? Behind it lies the information asymmetry peculiar to modern society and our cognitive biases.

In the HPV vaccine issue in Japan, the media sensationalized “suspected adverse reactions to the vaccine.” The composition of “pitiful victims” versus “coldhearted government/pharmaceutical companies” was very powerful as a narrative and strongly shook the emotions of viewers. On the other hand, the scientific explanations of experts, such as “there is no statistically significant difference” or “the benefits outweigh the risks,” sounded dry and cold, and were completely powerless in the face of the torrent of emotions.

In the world of science, if there is an established theory supported by 99% of scientists and a dissenting opinion from 1%, they are not treated as “equivalent opinions.” However, the media, perhaps placing too much emphasis on “fairness” or seeking to attract attention, reported the data that would save tens of thousands of lives and the emotional appeal of a single victim’s damage as “equals” side-by-side. Politicians, too, fearing public backlash, prioritized reading the “mood of the room” over scientific evidence. As a result, proactive recommendation of the HPV vaccine was suspended in Japan for about nine years, producing many cancer victims who could have been prevented during that time.

History Repeats Itself - The Intelligence to Resist the “Atmosphere”

In 2022, proactive recommendation of the HPV vaccine was finally resumed in Japan. However, the lost time and lives cannot be returned. And now, just as measles is rebounding in the United States, history will repeat itself over and over if we let our guard down.

It is impossible to completely deny the anti-vaccine movement or having concerns about medical care. Being cautious about what you put into your body is a human defense instinct, and drug-induced disasters have actually occurred in the past. Monitoring and doubting power is important in a democracy.

However, what the series of events—the COVID-19 vaccine, the HPV vaccine, and the measles outbreak in the US—confronts us with is the grim fact that “well-intentioned anxiety that ignores science” can claim more lives than the virus itself.

“It might be dangerous, so let’s wait and see.” When we make that decision, have we factored in the “probability of dying from the disease while waiting and seeing”? “Natural things are best.” When we say that, haven’t we forgotten the history that “it is the viruses found in nature that have taken lives most mercilessly”?

New infectious diseases will continue to appear, and new vaccines will be developed. When that happens, will we again be confused by the phenomenon of “coincidence” and swayed by emotional instigation? Or will we be able to calmly decipher the data and weigh the risks against the benefits?

It is said that history repeats itself. However, the only thing that can stop it is our reason. We must look at statistically correct data and possess the intelligence to choose “facts” over the “atmosphere.” That is our responsibility living in the modern age.

References / Data Sources

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare: “Human Papillomavirus Infection ~ Cervical Cancer and the HPV Vaccine ~”
National Cancer Center: Cancer Information Service “Cervical Cancer” Statistical Data
BBC News (Japanese): “US CDC Calls for Vaccination Amid Measles Outbreak; Global Infections on the Rise” (2024) and related original articles
Osaka University Research Team (Yagi A, et al. Lancet Public Health. 2020): Research on estimating excess morbidity and mortality due to the suspension of proactive recommendation for routine HPV vaccination
Nagoya Study (Suzuki S, et al. Papillomavirus Res. 2018)

Health on kenji.blog